THE SOUTH WILL RISE AGAIN!!
Junior, here is some brilliant analysis:
The Gators Can and Will Beat Ohio State
Ohio State fans are pretty sure of themselves these days. My esteemed Fanhouse colleague, JD Arney for Ohio State, wrote a little ditty after Florida was selected to appear in the title game. It was called: "Ohio State Wins 2006 National Championship." In JD's mind, Florida's BCS selection was nothing more a formality. JD, and plenty of other Ohio State fans, it seems, consider the Gators to be nothing more than cannon fodder. Apparently, by their reckoning, Urban Meyer's 12-1 SEC Champion Gators are destined to be crushed by the Sweatervest Juggernaut on January 8th.
"The ratings for this game will be a flop," commented one OSU fan. "It'll be over by halftime," says another. The giddy scarlet-and-grey crowd even predicted scores along the lines of 65-3. They're probably lining up to buy their championship gear already.
For reasons too numerous to get into here, that sort of cocky self-assuredness is a recipe for disaster if you root for the Bucks.
Not that the Gators need much help, but that serves as nothing more than m-o-t-i-v-a-t-i-o-n. Added incentive to give Ohio State the game of their lives.
Take a deep breath, Buckeye fans, and get ready to come to grips with the following statement:
The Buckeyes have no idea what they're about to tangle with when they face #2 BCS Florida in the national spotlight in Glendale, Arizona, on January 8th. And I mean that sincerely.
Why? Because Ohio State and its Heisman candidate quarterback would never have survived the SEC with a 12-1 record. They've yet to face a good, let alone great SEC defense. And they're not ready to keep up with the speed and athleticism of the Florida Gators.
How can I support this heresy? The old-fashioned way.
With facts.
Before we go any further, let me warn you: this is not a quick read. If you need a bathroom break, or a Diet Pepsi (my favorite beverage!), take care of those needs now. In fact, here's an outline for what lies ahead: we will review Ohio State, its schedule and its opponents first, followed by Florida. Then we'll compare. More after the jump.
Ready? Good.
Let's start by taking a look at OSU's schedule.
Date / Opponents / Result
September 2 Northern Illinois W 35-12
September 9 at No. 2 Texas W 24-7
September 16 Cincinnati W 37-7
September 23 No. 24 Penn State W 28-6
September 30 at No. 13 Iowa W 38-17
October 7 Bowling Green W 35-7
October 14 at Michigan State W 38-7
October 21 Indiana W 44-3
October 28 Minnesota W 44-0
November 4 at Illinois W 17-10
November 11 at Northwestern W 54-10
November 18 No. 2 Michigan W 42-39
Out of the twelve games they've played this season, Ohio State has matched up with two Top 5 opponents, one Top 15 opponent, and one (barely) Top 25 opponent.
Now, let's look more closely at those ranked opponents and play "Where Are They Now?"
Team / Rank at time of game / USA Today rank at end of regular season / Record / Drop/Climb
Texas No. 2 -> No. 16 (9-3) Dropped 14 places
Penn State No. 24 -> Unranked (8-4) Dropped out
Iowa No. 13 -> Unranked (6-6) Dropped out
Michigan No. 2 -> No. 3 (11-1) Dropped 1 place
Out of OSU's four ranked opponents, only two were arguably any good. Let's justify that with a quick look at Iowa and Penn State.
Iowa bowed to football powerhouse Indiana, lost five of their last six games, and finished unranked at 6-6. They never beat a ranked opponent, despite a winnable game against #16 Wisconsin. Kirk Ferentz's popularity bulb dimmed pretty quickly after a decent 2005 season.
And Penn State? They, too, failed to beat a single ranked opponent. Their wins include Akron, Youngstown State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, and Temple. Their best win was probably over Purdue. The win-loss record of the other teams they beat is far from impressive. (Northwestern only won 2 conference games; Michigan State and Illinois only won 1. The name "Temple" says it all for that team. And Youngstown State and Akron -- well, we won't go there.)
And let's not forget defense. Who is Ohio State putting up the numbers against? Only Texas, Penn State and Michigan have offered OSU a Top 25 defense:
- Michigan is ranked #6 in Total Defense, but suffers from the recurring weak point of the Big 10: a bevy of weak opponents. (See below.)
- Penn State: ranked #16 against the same terrible batch of teams.
- Texas is ranked #22 in Total Defense.
So: like I said, only two were any good. Any disagreement on that assessment so far? Any questions? No? Good. Let's zoom the microscope in just a little closer. Texas and Michigan remain.
How about Texas? They started the year ranked #2 and were seemingly blown out by the Bucks, 24-7. It cranked Troy Smith's Heisman hype up to overdrive and gave OSU plenty of momentum to run the table. But hold the phone, Dookie. Remember that Texas was starting a freshman QB by the name of Colt McCoy? He was outmatched in this game by Troy Smith. And the score seems to suggest a statistical shutdown of Texas.
But not so fast, my friends!
In fact, the numbers were quite even:
Total yards OSU: 348 / UT: 326
Passing yards OSU: 269 / UT: 154
Compt-att OSU: 17-26 / UT: 19-32
Rushing OSU: 79 / UT: 172
Yards per rush OSU: 2.7 UT 5.5
Turnovers OSU: 0 / UT: 2
Time of Poss. OSU: 29:34 / UT: 30:26
There are several interesting deductions here. First, the total yardage was almost identical (348 vs. 326.) Second, the two quarterbacks -- Smith a senior, McCoy a freshman -- were fairly even in pass completions (65% for Smith, 59% for McCoy) with an obvious advantage going to Smith for his 269 passing yards. But here's the nut we really want to crack: how does Ohio State give up 172 yards rushing and still win? The answer is simple: turnovers, and a freshman quarterback's inexperience. An interception by McCoy and a costly fumble gave the Bucks the opportunity to score three TDs and a field goal on Texas.
But the fact remains that Texas ran wild on OSU, and their freshman QB was able to complete a lot of passes against the Bucks' vaunted defense. Defense? Big 10? Who needs it?
So what you have here is a match which is far more competitive than it ever should have been for Ohio State, especially when you consider the QB mismatch. 24-7 looks good on paper, but it doesn't reflect the reality, which is that OSU's defense is average at best, and their offense... well, we'll get to that in a minute.
But Texas? The defending national champions? After handing Oklahoma their only true loss of the season, which was by far their best win -- and lucking out in a 22-20 victory over then #17 Nebraska, in which a last-second brain fart by the Huskers gave the ball back to the Longhorns -- they lost to Kansas State (!) and Texas A&M, both unranked teams. Yeah, I hear you now -- Colt McCoy was injured. But last time I checked, McCoy didn't play both ways, and the UT defense gave up 45 points to Kansas State. And against unranked Texas A&M, they could only put up a single TD.
What we're getting at here, and we think most objective fans will agree, is that Texas ain't all that great this season. They're a 3 loss team that should have lost four, and other than Nebraska, who almost doesn't count at #22, only had one victory over an opponent who finished in the Top 25.
Was Texas a quality W for Ohio State? It was at the time, or so the media told us. But if we're assigning OSU championship points, hindsight indicates they get precious few for that victory.
Finally: Michigan.
Let's start by giving Michigan credit. In the games we've seen them play this year, they look like a big, tough, physical team. A prototypical Big 10 warrior: not the fastest group of kids around, but athletic and disciplined. They act the part of a Top 5 team, although they have yet to play a team with speed.
Despite that, the Wolverines have precisely one strong win. In fact, they've only played one ranked team other than Ohio State -- Notre Dame, which from any imaginable perspective has to be one of the most overrated teams of the 2006 season. The Irish are a two-loss team who only by the grace of God, John L. Smith and Karl Dorrell avoided two additional losses at the hands of 4-8 Michigan State (who finished 1-8 in conference play) and UCLA, who finished with a 7-5 overall record (5-4 Pac-10), avoiding a six-loss regular season thanks to their miraculous victory over cross-town rival USC.
Anyone who watched the Irish against Michigan State knows that John L. Smith's coaching career was over after his staff guided the Spartans to a come-from-behind loss, snatching defeat from the mighty jaws of victory in a fashion which history has seldom seen.
And UCLA? Hey, the Gator Nation is a big fan of the Bruins. We're deliriously happy that, in Hugh Johnson style, UCLA brought down the whammy on the Trojans. But let's face the facts; for the Irish, beating the unranked Bruins with a last-second miracle pass is not an impressive victory.
So, you have that. Yes, Notre Dame was ranked, and yes, Michigan trounced them. But Notre Dame has been a pretender all year long; in fact, since the arrival of Charlie Weis, they have yet to beat a team which finished their season in the Top 25. Not one. Nada. Zilch. Zero.
Who else has Michigan beaten this year?
Here we go: Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the aforementioned Spartans, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, Ball State, Indiana, and... Vanderbilt.
None of those teams were ranked at the time they played Michigan. (Wisconsin ended up in the Top 15 after an 11-1 year, beating mostly the same group of terrible Big 10 teams and some big names like SDSU, Bowling Green, and Western Illinois. Following a familiar theme, the Badgers did not beat a single ranked opponent.) The one fly in the ointment is Vanderbilt, the perennial doormat of the SEC, who appeared to suffer mightily at the hands of the powerful Wolverines in their season opener in Ann Arbor, losing 27-7. But a closer look at the box score reveals that the game was close until late in the 3rd quarter; Michigan led by only six points -- 13-7 -- with 2:29 left in that period before scoring the game-busting TD. Vanderbilt held Michigan from scoring again until the meaningless final moments of the game, when, with 2:11, Mario Manningham caught a lob from Chad Henne to put an exclamation point on the final score.
Vanderbilt was never ranked and finished 1-7 in the SEC and 4-8 overall.
Since Michigan and Florida played the same team, the comparison is inevitable; but we'll get to that in the next section, when we talk about Florida's schedule.
One of those victories by Michigan deserves special attention: their 34-26 "win" over the dreaded Ball State Cardinals.
Let's make something clear. Ball State is bad. Really bad. Some would argue that they belong in the I-AA category. The Cardinals lost to Indiana, Purdue, ND State (I've never even heard of ND State!), Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Western Michigan.
Ball State outscored Michigan in the first and fourth quarters, and tied them in the third. Michigan could only outscore the Cards in the second quarter of play, by 14 points. In the first quarter, Ball State not only ran a Chad Henne interception back for six, they forced a safety! Ball State also outpassed Michigan -- 250 yards vs. 155 -- but simply couldn't run the ball at all, which ended up being their undoing.
That leaves a loss. It was Michigan's most impressive performance, so they say; their loss to the Buckeyes on November 18th.
A game in which they achieved 397 yards -- 267 in the air and 130 on the ground -- and 39 points, thanks in large part to OSU's -3 turnover margin.
Impressive? Maybe if you're a Big 10 fan.
Let's sum up Ohio State:
- 12 wins, zero losses...
- ... but only 2 wins of any significance whatsoever.
- Both of those wins came over teams (Texas and Michigan) who beat a combined total of 3 ranked opponents in 2006.
- One of those teams (Texas) lost to two unranked teams, Kansas State and Texas A&M.
- The other, Michigan, beat only a single ranked opponent -- overranked and overrated Notre Dame.
- The remaining victims of Ohio State were: Northern Illinois (MAC), Cincinnati (Big East), Penn State, Iowa, Bowling Green (MAC), Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern, none of which have seen the inside of the Top 25 this season.
- Speaking of the Zooker: Ohio State Struggled against 2-10 (1-7 Big 10) Illinois, winning 17-10 while putting up fewer total yards (224) than Illinois (234) and passing for only 108 yards vs. the Illini's 134. Illinois also earned 4.5 yards per carry on the ground vs. OSU's 2.5, and was nearly even in rushing yards (99 to OSU's 116.)
Let's find out. It's time to talk Florida.
Date / Opponents / Result
September 2 Southern Miss W 34-7
September 9 UCF W 42-0
September 16 @ No. 13 Tennessee W 21-20
September 23 Kentucky W 26-7
September 30 Alabama W 28-13
October 7 No. 9 LSU W 23-10
October 14 @ No. 11 Auburn L 27-17
October 28 @ Georgia W 21-14
November 4 @ Vanderbilt W 25-19
November 11 South Carolina W 17-16
November 18 Western Carolina W 62-0
November 25 @ Florida State W 21-14
December 2 No. 8 Arkansas W 38-28
Out of the thirteen games they've played this season, Florida has matched up with two Top 10 opponents (Arkansas, LSU) and two Top 15 opponents (Auburn, Tennessee). Unlike Ohio State's schedule, each and every one of these opponents put a quality product on the field. That's not even Including some of the unranked teams Florida beat -- teams who must face the upper crust of the SEC every year. I'm talking about teams like South Carolina (who came within a snaggletooth of beating Auburn and Florida, and were competitive in most of their games) and Georgia, who, despite quarterback and offensive woes throughout the season, always fielded tough defenses and eventually righted their ship with big victories over No. 5 Auburn and No. 16 Georgia Tech. Even Kentucky, bowl-bound at 7-5 for the year, was no slouch; they'd have eaten the Big 10's lower half alive, and given the Top 5 a real run for their money.
This is the SEC, of course, so let's talk defense. Of Florida's opponents, two are in the Top 10 for total defense; two are in the Top 20; and one is in the Top 25, for a total of five Top 25 defenses faced this year:
- #4 BCS LSU is ranked #2 nationally in total defense, allowing only 18 TDs all year;
- Unranked Georgia finished their regular season ranked #9 in total defense, allowing only 25 total TDs:
- Unranked Florida State is #15 in total defense, allowing only 28 TDs;
- Alabama and Auburn round out the list at #18 and #25 respectively.
(source: NCAA)
"Where are they now?" Looking for where the ranked opponents ended up:
Team / Rank at time of game / USA Today rank at end of regular season / Record / Drop/Climb
Tennessee No. 13 -> No. 18 (9-3) Dropped 5 places
LSU No. 9 -> No. 4 (10-2) Moved up 5 places
Auburn No. 11 -> No. 10 (10-2) Moved up 1 place
Arkansas No. 8 -> No. 13 (10-3) Dropped 5 places
Already, the stats are starting to favor the Gators. Florida has played four ranked opponents, and when you consider those teams' victories...
- Tennessee played three Top 10 opponents and two Top 15 opponents, ending up with a 9-3 record;
- LSU played three Top 5 opponents (#3 Auburn, #5 Florida, #5 Arkansas) and two Top 10 opponents, finishing with a 10-2 record;
- Auburn played (and beat) #2 Florida and #6 LSU, and lost to the then-unranked but ascending Arkansas Razorbacks, the SEC West Champions -- final record 10-2;
- Arkansas played two Top 5 teams, two Top 10 teams, and a Top 13 team, finishing with a 10-3 record after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship game.
Not one of Florida's ranked opponents dropped out of the Top 25. Two moved up; two dropped; but none tanked. LSU is a BCS team headed to the Sugar Bowl to bring immeasurable pain to Notre Dame, Auburn's going to the Cotton Bowl and Arkansas has a Heisman-quality running back in Darren McFadden. Georgia will probably find their way back into the Top 25 if not the Top 20 if they win their bowl game.
Again, I remind you: UF lost a single game to that group of teams. And that loss came largely on the strength of a badly botched official review.
One more data point: not one of Florida's ranked opponents lost a single game to an unranked opponent. The Big 10 is light years away from being able to say that.
Buckeye fans, do you still doubt the power of the SEC?
(Rhetorical question. Don't answer it.)
Okay, let's get this out of the way: "But what about Western Carolina?"
What about them? They were a Division I-AA team that would have been competitive with Ball State. (Difference is, Florida put 62 points on WCU, and did it with their second, third, and fourth strings. Even walk-ons made it onto the field.)
Let's sum up Florida:
- 12 wins, one loss...
- ... against four ranked teams.
- Florida's ranked opponents beat a combined total of eight ranked opponents, including one Top 5 team, six Top 10 teams, and one Top 15 team!
- One of UF's wins -- Arkansas -- came during an extra game which Ohio State didn't have to play; the conference championship.
- Two additional teams were unranked but fielded Top 15 defenses.
- Florida's schedule included a total of ten bowl-bound teams.
- Florida's defense is ranked 10th in the country in Total Defense, 6th in the country in rushing defense, and 6th in scoring defense.
"Ohio State can move the ball, Ferg. They put up a lot of yards. Florida can't do that."
Is that so? Let's see what the NCAA stats say:
Ohio State total offense average: 409.75 yards
Florida total offense average: 398.08 yards.
"Quarterbacks," you're thinking. "Troy Smith is better."
Ohio State passing efficiency: 66.56%, 165.93
Florida passing efficiency: 63.26%, 151.90 rating
"Rushing," you say.
Ohio State rushing offense average: 180.08 yards per game
Florida rushing offense average: 160.31 yards per game
What makes those numbers truly remarkable is that while they're essentially pretty even, Florida does it against the nation's toughest defenses, while Ohio State does it against teams like Northern Illinois, Cincinatti, Indiana and Bowling Green.
The Bottom Line...
Florida not only can and will win, an objective review of the stats indicate that they should be favored to win. But let's not tell the world just yet. I want that 8.5 point Vegas line to keep growing. It all just adds up to more m-o-t-i-v-a-t-i-o-n. Now if we can just get some bulletin board material from the Bucks' players, so we can tack on some "style points... "
posted by Trader Rick @ 6:42 PM
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